Macro Commentary
Let’s make a deal to make a deal. This week OPEC surprised markets by taking action, supposedly. Reports indicate that a production cap has been set at 32.5mm barrels of production from the cartel responsible for about 40% of global supply. That said it is left to the November meeting in Vienna to establish country limits that add up and make the whole deal work. Given the heated comments by representatives around the meeting, that is no small task. The Iraqi oil minister said that production estimates made by others of Iraqi volume are wrong. They will use their own numbers to comply with what is agreed upon. No room for manipulation there, clearly. Others may feel the same. Besides, in the past it wasn’t like quotas were followed closely. They were more like guidelines really. Regardless, the oil market liked the surprise sending the commodity price higher and taking the broader equity market with it on Wednesday. The broader optimism proved short-lived, however, as the following day the markets reversed course. I guess we will have to see in November whether OPEC can follow through with this change in strategy, or if this will be another case of much ado about nothing.